We hope you are having a great finish to your week! Here’s what we’ve been up to:
--- I was a guest this week on the hit podcast Dadsplaining: A Fatherhood Podcast.
It was a wonderful conversation and interview that allowed us to share so many good ideas. Brandon and Jesse have an exceptional show. Jodie was a fan of the show and used her fan-girl status to land the interview for us.
We posted this image and quote to a handful of our social media sites this week with the back story you see below:
This is one of my favorite lines when teaching investors of any age or experience level.
It is a quote from the late great Mark Hirschey who was a popular business school professor at The University Kansas. I was a student in his Investment Theory class in the spring of 2000, the peak of the "Internet Bubble” and the beginning of the “Tech Wreck”.
Mark had been betting AGAINST stocks for some time leading into the semester, and if you know anything about history, you know that was a BAD BET. Stocks had been on a huge bull run for 7 years leading into 2000. He said “I’m not wrong - I”m early” a dangerous thing to say because there’s another adage “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
Well, he was right in the end and it was fun to be in his class during that time!
I’m not suggesting anyone try to make a bold prediction like Mark’s bet. In fact, don’t ever make that type of bet if you aren’t a professional. But you can use this as a lesson for yourself.
If you do good research, you can figure out “what’s” going on with a business and where the future may lead it... but you won’t be able to figure out “when” it’s going to happen. That’s one of the many reasons investing in stocks takes extraordinary patience and a tolerance for losing money. You can be right in the long run, but really wrong in the short run. Stocks are unpredictable in the short term even if you (think you) know what’s going to happen in the long run. For most (99%+) people (including me), timing the market is a fool’s game. Study after study has proven this to be the case. Don’t get cute with your investments and start trying to time the market or predict the future. Rather than trying to time the market, we recommend you only invest an amount you can tolerate watching decline in value. Keep the rest of your money in safer investments or cash if you cannot tolerate the downs as well as the ups. That way, you won’t be as tempted to sell them when they are down. Maybe you’ll even feel comfortable BUYING LOW when the time comes. In the end, your behaviors determine your success as much or more than your investments. That’s what we know - we just don’t know when it will occur - and that’s why it is important to have a financial plan for all outcomes! Sidenote: I’m so thankful for the opportunity to be in Mark’s class. He helped me do my first professional level analysis of a stock back in 2000 when I dug in on Merck. He helped me fall back in love with the stock market... so much that I skipped the senior year spring break trip with my college buddies to stay home and research stocks. Mark was a great one - and I was sad to hear he died several years ago of cancer at only 59. I’m too late, but THANK YOU PROFESSOR!
Thanks so much for reading, and let us know if we can help!
With gratitude, J J and Jodie